TowerXchange’s analysis of the independent tower market in Asia

Towerco penetration across Asia is not as high as one might think and the market still presents considerable opportunities for growth. From the positive moves towards infrastructure sharing in Bangladesh and the Philippines, to a new phase of deals and BTS activities in Myanmar, the region is ripe with changes and excitement. TowerXchange is once again offering its readers an exclusive and updated analysis of the dynamics of each key market across Asia, with enhanced coverage of up and coming ones such as Bangladesh, the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam, while keeping a close eye on maturing and yet evolving landscapes such as India and Indonesia.

Afghanistan: Afghanistan has five MNOs, Afghan Wireless (AWCC) which is the country’s fastest growing MNO, Roshan which is funded by the Aga Khan Development Fund and is the country’s largest MNO, multinational players MTN (which has hinted at exiting the market) and Etisalat, and newcomer

Afghan Telecom which is part of the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology. Telecommunications remains an important sector for the Afghan government, with Afghan Wireless understood to be the largest tax payer in the country.

Each of the operators own pretty much of all of their sites, with the MNOs understood to have between 1000-1500 towers each. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of Afghanistan (ATRA) states that there are 6,645 base stations in the country, and with limited infrastructure sharing one can assume that a rough proxy for the number of towers. Around 100 of those sites are said to be owned by Asia Consulting Group.

Networks are better established in Northern and Central regions, although Afghan Wireless is still investing in Southern regions of the country. Since the MNOs entered the market in the early 2000s, the security situation has deteriorated significantly. The Taliban demanded the shutdown of a significant number of sites to avoid surveillance by national and international security forces; where these demands were not met many sites were blown up. MNOs have been reluctant to invest and so there has been little activity in terms of new tower build or co-location. Frontier Tower Solutions had operated in the market in the earlier days, building, operating and maintaining sites for Afghan Wireless but the towerco has since wound up operations in the country.

99% of sites run on gensets – even in cities – and the biggest challenge is getting fuel delivered to sites. Solar solutions had been examined but the payback period means that MNOs have been reluctant to invest. There are few to no major international contractors operating in the market outside of the military (with foreign troops also having massively reduced their presence, a factor which caused a drop in subscriber numbers) although TowerXchange has heard rumour about one multinational MSP offering ESCO-like services in the market.

In spite of the challenging conditions, coverage in the market has been described as “fairly okay”. There are 30.4mn subscribers with mobile penetration sitting at 89% (source: ATRA) and 4G coverage is available in major urban areas, where data usage continues to grow faster than expected. In early 2018, the ATRA agreed to provide US$32.1mn of funding to deploy 250 base stations in rural and remote areas. Roshan will deploy 137 sites, Afghan Wireless 84 sites and Afghan Telecom a total of 29.

Australia: In 2018, Telstra made the headlines when the operator announced the carve-out of its non-mobile-related assets including data centres, fibre, copper, subsea cables, poles and more into a separate infraco as part of a restructuring plan called Telstra2022 that aims at streamlining the company’s operations and reduce its opex.

The plan will result in 8,000 net jobs being cut over the next three years, including 25% of executive and middle management roles.

This year, it is all about 5G. Last December, Dense Air, Mobile JV (a joint venture between TPG Telecom and Vodafone), Optus Mobile and Telstra paid over US$ 600mn for the 350 slots offered in the 5G spectrum auction in the 3.8GHz band, and all operators have now started the transition to 5G.

Telstra, Ericsson and the Commonwealth Bank are reportedly working together and exploring the different possibilities for 5G deployment. The market leader has been switching on its 5G technology since August and has enabled around 200 5G sites, using its early access license previously issued by the Australian Communications and Media Authority.

Optus has now two live 5G sites and is partnering with technology leader Ericsson to build at least 60 more in the upcoming months.

Both towercos and MNOs will need to work together to raise the necessary investment for 5G networks deployment while exploring further collaboration and sharing initiatives on small cells, base stations hotels and fibre. Leading towerco Axicom is exploring new technologies and its CEO Graeme Barclay has publicly confirmed that the company is already increasing capacity in existing sites while investing in small cells and new solutions such as power, fibre, cabins, and BTS on a shared access and shared cost model.

The “traditional” tower landscape remains pretty much unchanged with Axicom (formerly Crown Castle), Broadcast Australia and a handful of smaller independent towercos owning around 2,600 towers and a further 1,800 towers having been recently erected by nbn, the Government-owned new broadband network.

Estimated site count for Australia

Australia-towercount-Jan-2017

Bangladesh: In 2018, two major events marked the Bangladesh infrastructure market. On one hand, the licensing of four towercos – edotco Bangladesh, iSON Tower (now renamed Kirtonkhola Tower), AB Hightech Consortium and TASC Summit Towers – which are now entitled to operate in the country as commercial organisations and, on the other hand, the near-stop of any new builds. Two events one might argue are in stark contrast with each other but also a sign of the changes currently happening across Bangladesh.

In fact, while the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) proceeded with the towerco licenses in an attempt to rationalise the market as well as prohibiting MNOs from building their own sites, towercos struggle to start building new sites while understanding the dynamics of the new regime.

As of now, local sources seem positive about the pipeline of new builds for 2019 and towercos are now in the process of negotiating MLAs and MSAs with MNOs while awaiting the natural lag between permit application, securing permits and breaking ground. Permitting a new site takes several months in Bangladesh, with longer periods required for sites on the border.

A new challenge is now affecting the market though, as the BTRC is possibly considering actions against Grameenphone and its dominant position. In fact, the MNO owns around 7,800 towers across Bangladesh and has been leasing them up on a commercial basis, hence functioning as the largest towerco in the country.

This could represent an interesting opportunity for a sale and leaseback deal, combined with 6,000 sites Banglalink is said to be looking at monetising. However, in recent conversations with local sources, TowerXchange discovered further complexities which might hinder tower divestments. Read more in the latest editorial “Unleashing the potential of towerco investment in Bangladesh”.

Estimated tower count for Bangladesh

Revenue market share of MNO in infra-sharing in Bangladesh

Cambodia: With a crowded mobile market consisting of six operators serving a population of 15.5mn, and a regulator that supports infrastructure sharing, there is continued potential for the 9,200 site tower market in Cambodia to grow.

There has been an influx of Chinese operators and vendors prepared to invest heavily in this ‘one belt, one road’ market. While on the operational front, challenges still remain including 20% of sites being off-grid and the risk of landmines in the more remote areas.

The country’s mobile penetration is over 110% to date and that is driving the Government to push for 100% coverage in urban areas and 70% in rural areas by 2020.

Of the 9,200 sites in the country, edotco operates more than 3,100 sites and provides managed services to an additional 1,000. The towerco has recently shared with TowerXchange its plans to build around 200-250 sites per year for the next three years as well as engaging in small cells, IBS and poles deployments.

Local tower builder Camtowerlink also has a modest footprint in Cambodia.

Selected Asian tower market size comparisons, Q3 2018

China: Now covered in China FAQs.

Tower deals in Asia 2008-2019 (excluding carve-outs)

India: With the merger now finalised, Vodafone Idea is in talks with Bharti Airtel to create a joint venture for their fibre infrastructure. In a recent Economic Times article, Airtel’s Chairman Sunit Mittal was quoted stating ‘We have asked Vodafone Idea to come and join the fibre company… We are starting with our own fibre company and if Vodafone Idea brings its fibre assets, then they will get appropriate shares.” A combined fibreco could be beneficial for both MNOs to improve capacity, create more efficiency and avoid future overlaps.

Talking about fibre, Reliance Jio is demerging its fibre assets and tower portfolios and creating two new entities, Jio Digital Fibre and Reliance Jio Infratel, with the latter owning and managing the tower assets. Once fully operational, Jio Digital Fibre is said to be valued around US$6-8bn and could be monetised via a sale and leaseback or infrastructure investment trust (InvIT). Interested investors, according to local sources, include Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec (CDPQ), Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Qatar Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, Kingdom Holdings, Khazanah, Allianz and Macquarie among others.

Having reached various settlements with its creditors, Reliance Communications (RCom) is still in negotiations to sell its assets to Reliance Jio (RJio). RCom will divest its 43,000 towers, fibre and spectrum rights to RJio while the sale of its real estate portfolio in New Delhi and Chennai to Brookfield is uncertain.

Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers are still in the process of merging and creating a pan-Asian towerco with over 164,000 towers. The Competition Commission of India granted its approval to the merger which should be completed within the year.

The merger between the two entities is set to counteract the negative impact that MNOs consolidations is having on towercos’ revenues, growth and tenancy ratios. In their Q318 results, both Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers reported a considerable decrease in their tenancy ratios, with Indus’ going from 2.43 to 1.84 and Bharti’s from 2.41 to 1.96 in the last year.

In terms of the state-owned MNOs, BSNL has received the green light for the carve out of its 66,000 towers into a separate infrastructure unit while the other State-run MNO, MTNL, is considering divesting its 10,000 tower portfolio in an attempt to reduce its debts. BSNL’s carve out could be valued up to US$3bn and analysts are excited by the potential of these towers coming to market as many are in prime locations with considerable tenancy ratio growth potential, having not been proactively marketed before.

Rational MNO consolidation is welcomed by towercos who would prefer to see spectrum holdings consolidated into four or five companies with the capital and appetite to rollout. With India’s 3G overlay around half finished and expected to reach 95% coverage in the next 18-24 months, the 4G rollout has already started in tier one and tier two cities. In the near term, the 4G rollout is expected to have a marginal impact on the profitability of Indian towercos, whilst the majority of BTS are added through ‘loading’ – the addition of a second set of antenna by an existing tenant – but when 4G rollout progresses to adding infill sites for densification, expect to see a significant increase in tower cash flow.

Tower ownership in India today

Indonesia: Last year, Protelindo’s holding company, Sarana Menara Nusantara (SMN) finalised the acquisition of Komet Infra Nusantara (KIN), which  added 1,400 towers and 2,000 tenancies to the company’s portfolio and contributed to further consolidate the towerco leading position in the country. Moreover, Protelindo acquired around 300 km of fibre infrastructure on six islands that will improve the company’s FTTT capabilities. For now, there are no further news with regards to the planned sale of STP, with sources suggesting the process had stalled due to differences in valuation. Indonesia’s towercos build 3,000-5,000 towers, rooftops and infill sites per year and tenancy ratio growth compares favourably to many other global tower markets, with around 0.13 tenants added per tower per year.

Being one of the most mature tower markets in the world, it comes as no surprise that towercos are gearing up to fiberise Indonesia, with both Protelindo and STP at the forefront of fibre and small cell projects.

The country’s third largest MNO, who recently issued a bond of US$706.5mn for its network expansion, is now rumoured to be exploring a sell of its towers in a deal that could be valued at more than US$1bn.

Estimated tower count for Indonesia

Japan: Japan is one of the most sophisticated mobile markets in the world. Yet towers are still seen as a source of competitive differentiation, which perhaps explains why initial interest in carving out a towerco a few years ago seems to have tailed off, and why tower count data is so hard to find – readers should consider our estimate a very rough guide. Japan is famous for having the fewest number of subscribers per tower in the world – reportedly around 500 – suggesting a staggering tower count of around 220,000 for a nation of 127mn people and a landmass of just 378,000sq km.

LTE was launched as early as 2011 by former State-owned monopoly NTT DOCOMO and in 2012 by the other MNOs, SoftBank and KDDI (au). DOCOMO has already started rolling out LTE-A. Japan’s three leading MNOs are believed to have each added up to 30,000 microcells and small cells as infill sites. TowerXchange understand several tower companies are trying to establish themselves in the Japanese market, but to date their penetration remains negligible.

Laos: Over the past six months, Laos has officially opened up to towercos. The first news came in August with the national government and local firm Click Lao Marketing and Consultancy signing an agreement with China Tower Corporation (CTC) to establish the Southeast Asia Tower company. According to local news sources “the Southeast Asia Tower Company will mainly be engaged in the construction, maintenance and operation of communication towers, base stations, power supplies and other supporting facilities, as well as that of indoor distribution systems and transmission systems in Laos.”

In February this year, edotco presented a filing at the Bursa Malaysia announcing its entrance into Laos via the purchase of an 80% stake in local entity Mekong Tower Company Ltd. (MTCL). The filing stated that “…the Laos tower market is expected to undergo intense growth in tandem with a national drive towards 4G adoption, with an estimated demand of no less than 5,000 towers over the next 3 years.”

The country is home to four MNOs and approximately 8,000 towers but we are likely to see an increase in tower counts as a result of the newly launched towerco activities.

Estimated tower count for Laos

Laos-towercount-Jan-2017

Malaysia: Towercos own roughly 64% of Malaysia’s towers, led by edotco’s 4,000 towers carved out of Celcom/Axiata. A further 3,200 towers are owned by 14 different State-backed and other independent towercos, while turnkey infrastructure provider OCK Group owns around 240 sites with plans to build an estimated 70 to 100 more sites in the country. YTL, Naza Communications and Omnix Malaysia are also active.

There are an estimated 22,682 towers now in Malaysia, representing almost 2,000 mobile subscribers per tower. A new ground based tower in Malaysia costs around RM300,000 (US$69K).

Later last year, the government launched its National Fibre Connectivity Plan, which could push Malaysian towercos to further explore fibre integration, Meanwhile, some operators have started looking at 5G rollout and MNO Maxis has inked an MoU with Huawei to accelerate 5G deployment. It has been estimated that an additional 8,000 structures may be needed in Malaysia for 4G and with operators exploring 5G, much of the new demand will be met by microcells, lamp-poles, DAS and IBS.

Estimated tower count for Malaysia

Mongolia: In 2013 the government separated telecom service providers from infrastructure providers in the challenging 3mn population, 1.5mn sq km Mongolian market. The infrastructure providers, including State¬-owned ICNC, Mobi Network and Sky Network, run towers, active equipment, fibre and microwave backhaul. More than half Mongolia’s ~1,000 towers are shared.

Myanmar: With around 62% of sites in the country owned by towercos, Myanmar remains an exciting market in which to do business for entrepreneurial towercos. To date, there are around 15,827 sites in Myanmar.

Latest entrant MyTel sealed a build-to-suit deal with MNTI – one of the latest towercos to enter Myanmar – for 400 sites of which 371 have already been built. The operator has already invested more than US$1bn in infrastructure, including the rollout of 30,000km of fibre-optic cable.

In the meantime, edotco has taken over the provision of energy services for 1,250 Ooredoo sites. The deal, which has been discussed in a separate interview in this Journal with Vijendran Watson, edotco Myanmar’s MD, marks a change in the way the towerco operates in the country offer a tower + power model. IGT  overpassed 3,000 towers and will continue its organic growth.

The country is definitely moving towards consolidation and last year TPG  finally announced the acquisition of Pan Asia Majestic Eagle (PAMEL). The American investor added PAMEL’s 1,300 towers to its existing portfolio of 1,800 Apollo-owned sites, with an enterprise value of approximately US$1bn.  KPR TOWERS also announced the acquisition of Myanmar Infrastructure Group (MIG) and their 100 towers from majority owners Singapore Myanmar Investco for US$10.8mn.

Stimulated by the network investment commitments of MyTel, TowerXchange has learned of several new towercos now launching in the marketplace including New Tower Development (NTD), Myanmar Technology Gateway (MTG), MNTH, DLRE, CommBiz, ITMB, MAPCO, MNTI, along with potentially a handful more others.

On average, most of the mature towers that are two-plus years old have a tenancy ratio around 2.0x.

Grid power is still unreliable even in major cities and power remains the main issue for the industry, with towercos and MNOs relying on gensets and batteries while exploring the benefits of hybrid systems, renewables and lithium-ion batteries to power and cover their operations.

In recent news, it was announced that Yoma Micro Power has raised US$28mn from the IFC, Norfund and Yoma Strategic Holdings for a micro-power plant and mini-grids project that should contribute to powering towers in rural areas through solar-based plants while the mini-grids will provide electricity to local communities.The first ESCO contract was signed in 2018, between new towerco MNTI and Voltalia, an international renewable energy player. The agreement covers an initial batch of 171 telecom towers, of which 80% are not connected the national electricity grid. The contract is for 10 years, with Voltalia responsible for power supply to the sites at 2kW each, located in the Bao and Ayeyarwaddy regions of Myanmar.

Myanmar market share (subscribers)

Breakdown of ownership of the 15,827 towers in Myanmar 

Nepal: Axiata Group has closed the acquisition of a majority stake in Nepalese market leader Ncell from TeliaSonera, in a deal believed to be worth US$1.365bn. There have been no tower deals in Nepal to date, but this move by the Axiata Group may pave the way for edotco to enter the market in the near future.

Almost two years ago, the Nepal Telecommunications Authority (NTA) published a draft Infrastructure Development and Sharing Regulation, seeking request for proposal from towercos to provide telecom infrastructure services. Although at least eight international firms were interested, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MoCIT) has not issued any license yet.

A NTA representative has recently stated that the issue is under discussion at the board of NTA, while the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MoCIT) is now working on a plan to form a separate infrastructure company inviting shares of different telecom companies operating in the country. Some infrastructure sharing appears to be underway, as Nepal Telecom (NT) had indicated in June it will extend coverage to 175 locations within a year, with 138 with “base transceiver stations (BTS) or network extension platforms that will be shared with other phone companies.” The State-owned operator is said to be at the final stage of inviting bids for the procurement of equipment including BTS towers.

TowerXchange will be looking to undertake further market studies for a dedicated report on Nepal’s telecom infrastructure landscape.

New Zealand: There are early signs of a nascent tower industry emerging in New Zealand, where Spark and Vodafone New Zealand have substantial but ageing tower networks, newer entrants 2degrees have leveraged co-location where possible while building a few hundred towers. 2degrees may have an appetite to sell their towers and partner with a towerco on BTS. Parallel infrastructure is substantial, while the need for improved rural coverage, particularly on the South Island where tourist and agribusiness drive demand, has prompted the government’s Rural Broadband Initiative to invest in over 100 towers. A total of around 4,000 macro-towers are supplemented by around 7,000 rooftop sites, primarily used in the larger cities.

Pakistan: Pakistan has four MNOs; Jazz (formed through the acquisition of Warid by VEON’s Mobilink) leads the market, followed by Telenor, China Mobile’s Zong and Ufone (in which Etisalat has a stake). With a relatively low mobile penetration rate of ~73% and a data penetration rate of ~24%, there is significant opportunity for long-term growth in the market.

Towercos have been licensed in Pakistan since 2006 but MNO attitudes towards infrastructure sharing only started to thaw in 2011, initially seeing their networks as a source of competitive advantage.

Towershare-owned Tanzanite built a portfolio of 700 sites in the market, built largely from acquisitions, with the majority of towers coming from previous WiTribe assets. The Tanzanite portfolio, 40% of which were ground based towers, secured tenancies from all major operators, reaching a tenancy ratio of 1.6x before being acquired by pan-Asian towerco, edotco Group for US$88.9mn in 2017.

Subsequently, edotco subsequently joined forces with Dawood Hercules, a listed Pakistani holding company conglomerate to acquire the 13,000 Jazz towers which had been carved out into a subsidiary, Deodar. However, the deal with scrapped this past September.

Whilst several local companies are also licensed as towercos, only AWAL Telecom appears to be trading as such. MNOs Telenor, Zong and Ufone each retain their tower portfolios. Ufone has been exploring the potential sale and leaseback of their towers in Pakistan for some time. The process was stalled by the de facto merger of PTCL and Ufone, and associated management changes, but Ufone could yet contribute over 6,000 further assets to the pool of commercially shared towers.

China Mobile’s Pakistan opco, which trades under the brand name Zong, has around 9,100 sites, of which around 2,000 are co-locations. Telenor is a keen advocate of all forms of network sharing; towers (sharing primarily with Jazz), fibre (sharing with Zong), and has taken a lead role in exploring active infrastructure sharing. Telenor and Zong undertook Pakistan’s first RANsharing trials across around 30 sites, while the Norwegian-owned MNO has also shared IBS, both under the MORAN model where spectrum is not shared.

There has been extensive infrastructure sharing between operators but significant parallel infrastructure exists, especially in urban areas, implying that decommissioning is likely to be a key part of edotco’s strategy in the future. TowerXchange estimate the prevailing tenancy ratio (the average number of tenants across all towers in the country) to be around 1.25 in Pakistan, with a clear pathway to 1.5. Of around 10,000 co-locations in the country, most originate from barter arrangements, with some application of commercial lease rates, but more often offset against one another so no cash changes hands.

Pakistan’s MNOs cite power as the number one operational challenge in the market, followed by security and landlord issues. While Pakistan’s electricity grid remains unstable, and outages can last eight or more hours, the situation has improved notably in recent years. Backup diesel genset runtime is being reduced at sites on the country’s better grid connections, with DGs increasingly being removed from such sites. edotco will offer a full tower+power service in Pakistan, meaning they will lease tower and ground space as well as providing DC energy.

 

 

Estimated tower counts for Pakistan

Philippines: Formerly a sleeper market characterised by the cosy duopoly between Globe Telecom and Smart (PLDT), things became interesting in the Philippines in late 2017 when President Rodrigo Duterte decided to open up the country’s telecommunications. This was followed by a proposal for a common tower policy that is now about to become a reality after the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) signed MoUs with 12 local and international tower providers that aim to obtain a license to deploy the 50,000 estimated towers that the Philippines need. Rumors and announcements of Globe’s and PLDT interest to divest their tower further fuelled excitement.

Moreover, after several delays DICT finally appointed Mislatel— a consortium led by local businessman Dennis A. Uy and state-owned China Telecom Corp—as the country’s third operator.  Mislatel committed to provide 37% coverage at an average internet speed of 27Mbps in its first year, with an initial investment of more than US$2.5bn and will go up to US$4.88bn within five years.

Last year, the guidelines of the draft common tower policy stated that a maximum of two towercos would be accredited by the DICT, but after signing agreements with 12 different players, the regulator might consider issuing more than two licenses and has declared that only big players who are capable of delivering hundreds of towers will be considered.

As it stands, all towers remain in the hands of the operators but probably not for long. Globe is on the record as having over 8,000 towers to date and Smart-PLDT reported 9,850 sites, while industry experts estimate that the country requires a total of 70,000 sites.

Last August, Globe secured the approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to establish a separate tower holding company, which will operationalize the divestment of all or part of its tower assets through a separate entity. The company has confirmed to TowerXchange that they are deeply involved in this process.

Operators are set to keep investing in 4G and 5G deployment as well as modernising existing 3G networks. The big jump in frequency that 5G requires will also drive the deployment of new antenna technologies and urban typologies. In order to deliver a better customer experience using 5G, Philippines MNOs will have to put up more cell towers, antennas, and base stations across the nation, especially in cities where line-of-sight transmissions are more difficult.

Moreover, fibre will present great opportunities for the industry. PDLT’s ongoing nationwide fibre-optic rollout program has already set up a number of so-called ‘PLDT Smart City’ areas. A consortium of Filipino-Chinese developers is working on an extensive smart city project that will give rise to a mixed-use development off the coast of Manila. By next year, Smart aims to double the number of LTE base stations to about 17,700 and raise the number of LTE-equipped cell sites to over 6,800.

The imminent entry of a third operator and the tower sharing mandate make the Philippines the must-watch Asian tower market of the moment. There is plenty of potential here, especially if the government is able to come through with significant improvements to permitting approvals.

South Korea: According to GSMA Intelligence, SIM penetration was at 113% among a population of 50.4mn in Q4 2015. South Korea boasts one of the most sophisticated telecommunications infrastructures in the world, cultivating an insatiable demand for high speed mobile broadband among its citizens.

Mobile broadband penetration in South Korea is above 99% and fibre has been widely deployed. South Korea is a three-operator market featuring SK Telecom, KT and LG Uplus. The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (MSIP) has tried multiple times over the years to license a fourth MNO, however, failed again in February 2017 as none of the three applicants (Sejong Telecom, K Mobile, and Quantum Mobile) met the criteria.

South Korea was the first market in the world to migrate the majority of users to LTE, with LTE-A rollout now well under way. SK Telecom recently noted it will invest KRW 6tn in infrastructure for network leadership in 2017, while maintaining overall capex similar to 2016. Meanwhile, KT is looking to make the 5G experience available at the 2018 Winter Olympics.

TowerXchange is starting to pick up the first faint signals that towerco activity may be emerging in South Korea.

Sri Lanka: As of the end of 2017, edotco managed ~3,375 towers in the country. High levels of bilateral sharing means tenancy ratios are closer to two than one all over the country. Sri Lanka is now mostly covered with 3G, and 4G is driving need for cell site densification. Dialog and Mobitel hold all of the 4G spectrum, and any other players that want to offer this will need to engage in RANsharing. There are around 7,500 towers in the country.

Bharti Airtel had been rumoured to be looking at selling its 2,500 towers  but seems to have cooled on the idea.

Thailand: With five operators and over 50,000 towers, Thailand could be the perfect tower market but to date, only one company (DIF) acts in the infrastructure industry as a fund with around 13,000 towers and over 1mn km of fibre.

Ownership of towers is in dispute as a function of BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) concessions that are now expiring. Thailand’s three commercial MNOs were due to transfer 2G infrastructure back to SOEs CAT and TOT. The 2G equipment has little value, but of course the towers do. CAT, which ran the concessions for the 850 and 1800MHz bands, failed to reach an agreement with majority stakeholder DTAC to create a 49-51% JV towerco, into which 11,000 disputed towers were to be injected. Negotiations to create a prospective 12,000 tower JV towerco between AIS and TOT, which ran the 900MHz concession, were called off late in 2015, but the process has resumed with the recent creation of a committee to pave the way for the creation of the joint venture.

In August 2018, an auction of spectrum in the 4G-suitable 1800MHz band took place. However, in spite of much buzz around it, only two operators bid and were awarded just one block each.

#1 and #2 MNOs AIS and DTAC took part in the auction and only two of the nine available blocks were sold. Telecom regulator NBTC is planning an auction for the unsold blocks later this year with some critical amends to the terms of the auction.

Vietnam: According to the Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC), Vietnam has now 128mn mobile phone subscribers. Although the market is quite mature and saturated, its telecom industry still generated around US$16.8bn in 2017 (a 7.3% growth YoY) and the local Government is actively promoting the development of telecom technologies and IT initiatives to meet the objectives of sustainable economic growth and international integration.

Viettel undoubtedly dominates the game and has around 50% market share with 63mn subscribers. State-owned MobiFone serves approximately 34.8mn customers, followed by VNPT-Vinaphone with 20.5mn. Smaller players Gmobile, with 6mn and Vietnamobile with 3.7mn are trying to increase their piece of the pie and compete with the three giants.

Currently there are an estimated 90,000 towers in Vietnam, and the majority of them remain in the hands of the operators. The towerco ecosystem is still fragmented and there are dozens of very small tower companies owning portfolios of less than 100 sites.

With ~2,000 towers, we can consider Malaysia-based OCK the market leader. OCK is not planning to build more assets due to mobile market constraints but they are very keen on consolidating its portfolio and TowerXchange has learned that they are currently negotiating some acquisitions.

Golden Towers and Nisco are the other known towercos of some scale with 350 and 300 towers respectively. The former is now building 100 more towers after closing a BTS deal with MobiFone.

Tenancy ratios is around 1.5 and MNOs do not have plans to sell and leaseback any tower assets and infrastructure sharing among operators is still limited, but there is still much room for growth and positive expectations. Lease rates, which are all denominated in local currency, have grown recently due to inflation and an increase in rental fees. The average cost is VND15mn per month (US$640 per month), notably lower than Myanmar (US$900-1500) but still higher than India (US$550) and China (US$350)

The market has almost reached its peak in terms of subscribers but everybody across the value chain can find a role in this challenging context. While the government still needs to grasp the benefits of infrastructure sharing, operators can improve their efficiency and relieve their balance sheets by modernising their networks and transferring some responsibilities to towercos. Infrastructure providers can find great opportunities in urban areas, where fibre, 4G and the future deployment of 5G will require significant network investment. Ultimately, vendors can also play a substantial role in this modernisation process by providing more sophisticated monitoring systems and helping both towercos and operators in optimising their assets.

 

 

Estimated tower ownership in Thailand

Thailand-towercount-Jan-2017

Asia heatmap

Comments (3)

It doesn’t seem to make sense that South Korea only has 30K towers as the country has one of the most extensive networks there. What do you think?

Kieronbackup

We haven’t studied South Korea in detail as there are no towercos.

Kieronbackup

Thanks to a recent tip we can attribute around 1,000 of those unidentified towers in Malaysia to UMobile.

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